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A fireman tries to extinguish fires from oil wells, set ablaze by Islamic State militants before fleeing the oil-producing region of Qayyara, Iraq, November 4, 2016.Alaa Al-Marjani/Reuters
Two years ago, oil prices plummeted after OPEC voted to not cut production.
Fast forward to 2016, and it looks like the cartel could be gearing up for a production cut.
As members prep themselves for the November 30 meeting, we took a look at how they have fared over the last few months in terms of economic, geopolitical, and security issues.
RBC Capital Markets’ commodities research team led by Helima Croft ranked all 14 members from least to highest risk, with 10 being the highest possible risk.
Qatar relies on liquid natural gas, and so it’s problems «will emerge later this decade.»
Qatar’s Energy Minister Mohammed bin Saleh al-Sada.Naseem Zeitoon/Reuters
Risk for this year: 2
Oil production last month: 0.62 millions of barrels/day
Oil production 2015 average: 0.67 mb/d
Qatar is a big player in the liquefied natural gas sector, and so analysts believe that its challenges «will emerge later this decade.»
Still, it’s notable that the country raised $9 billion in Eurobonds back in May, which was the biggest bond issuance in the Middle East until Saudi Arabia’s last month.
Source: RBC Capital Markets
The United Arab Emirates continues to sit in the «sweet spot.»
The British Petroleum logo is seen near a petrol station in Dubai with the Burj Khalifa tower in the background July 7, 2010.Jumana ElHeloueh/Reuters
Risk for next year: 2
Oil production last month: 3.11 mb/d
Oil production 2015 average: 2.88 mb/d
Like other GCC states, the United Arab Emirates remains better positioned than other producers to weather lower oil. However, it, too, has made some cutbacks.
«GCC monarchies survived the Arab spring uprisings largely unscathed by ratcheting up social spending. Now, however, the recent moves to scale back the social contract pose the risk of domestic discord and strife,» wrote Croft.
«Hence, the GCC — UAE included— will likely remain core members of the Saudi-led OPEC coalition of the willing, together looking to add a little extra grease to the wheels toward achieving moderately higher prices.»
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Kuwait has a small population, but they do not want austerity measures.
Kuwait’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Sabah al-Khaled al-Sabah (L) arrives to attend a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) meeting in Riyadh March 12, 2015.Reuters/Faisal Al Nasser
Risk for next year: 3
Oil production last month: 2.96 mb/d
Oil production 2015 average: 2.85 mb/d
Although Kuwait has a small population and a relatively large sovereign wealth fund, the country has seen some disarray in 2016.
Back in April, oil workers went on strike to protest proposed government cutbacks. And more recently, the Emir dissolved parliament following «disputes between MPs and the government over fuel price increases in the oil-rich country.»
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Indonesia isn’t the biggest producer, but it is highly exposed to a potential China slowdown.
Dwi Soetjipto, chief executive officer of Indonesia’s state energy company Pertamina.Antara Foto/Zabur Karuru/via Reuters
Risk for next year: 3
Oil production last month: 0.74 mb/d
Oil production 2015 average: 0.79 mb/d
Indonesia is highly exposed to any potential slowdown in China, one of the big oil guzzlers.
Separately, there were reports that the country’s state oil company, Pertamina, wants to up production by 42% in 2017.
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Iran could be looking at some downside risks after the election of Donald Trump.
An Iranian man works on an oil production platform at the Soroush oil fields in the Persian Gulf, south of the capital Tehran, July 25, 2005.Reuters
Risk for next year: 5
Oil production last month: 3.68 mb/d
Oil production 2015 average: 2.81 mb/d
Iran previously saw a «reversal of fortunes» after sanctions were lifted. However, the election of Donald Trump now increases the possibility of a «snap-back» of sanctions on Tehran, given that the president-elect called the Iran deal «one of the worst deals ever negotiated.«
«Given the question mark now looming over its economic revival, Iran may no longer be able to maintain such a price agnostic production position,» argued Croft. «We may already be seeing signs of this, with oil minister Bijan Zanganeh saying on Sunday that it is ‘highly probable‘ that OPEC will reach a consensus in Vienna.»
«The fact that the country has basically clawed itself back to its pre-sanctions output
position may also make it adopt a more conciliatory stance in Vienna and our base case is that Iran will be part of OPEC’s coalition of the willing on November 30.»
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Ecuador has expanded economic ties with China as it recovers from a devastating earthquake.
Oil workers are seen in front of a refurbished oil refinery in Esmeraldas, Ecuador December 17, 2015.Guillermo Granja/Reuters
Risk for next year: 5
Oil production last month: 0.56 mb/d
Oil production 2015 average: 0.54 mb/d
Ecuador suffered a powerful 7.8-magnitude earthquake back in April, which saw a death toll of over 650. China helped with the relief effort, and since then, the two countries have worked to expand economic ties.
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Angola is looking at growing financial troubles amid concerns about government corruption.
Labourers mix cement at the site of a new port to be built in the oil-producing Angolan exclave of Cabinda, June 11, 2016. Picture taken June 11, 2016.Ed Cropley/Reuters
Risk for next year: 6
Oil production last month: 1.66 mb/d
Oil production 2015 average: 1.80 mb/d
Angola briefly enjoyed the status as Africa’s largest producer earlier this year, but has fallen back to second place as Nigerian production ramped back up.
The country continues to struggle with high inflation — which hit 40.04% year-over-year in October — and its currency, the kwanza, fell by over 30% against the dollar in 2015.
At the same time, there are concerns about corruption after President Jose Eduardo dos Santos hired his daughter, the richest woman in the country, to lead the state oil company.
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Saudi Arabia is trying to push forward with ambitious reforms — but the austerity measures are front-loaded.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih talks during the 23rd World Energy Congress in Istanbul, Turkey, October 10, 2016.Murad Sezer/Reuters
Risk for next year: 6
Oil production last month: 10.58 mb/d
Oil production 2015 average: 10.24 mb/d
The RBC Capital Markets team argues that there’s a good chance OPEC will agree to a cut come November 30 — and all because of Saudi Arabia.
«Our view is primarily based on the belief that the single most important country in OPEC, Saudi Arabia, wants it, and that the ability of a number of suspected cheaters to cheat is constrained,» they wrote. «OPEC’s leadership is cognizant of the risks posed by failing to reach a deal.»
Against the backdrop of this, Saudi Arabia is pushing forward with major reforms. Although there have yet to be major protests, the austerity measures are front-loaded — which creates a challenge for the government.
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Gabon saw protests erupt after the outcome of the presidential election this past summer.
Burnt out cars are seen outside a government building, following an election protest in Libreville, Gabon, Thursday Sept. 1, 2016.Joel Bouopda/AP
Risk for next year: 6
Oil production last month: 0.20 mb/d
Oil production 2015 average: 0.21 mb/d
Gabon saw protests erupt after the outcome of the presidential election this past summer. Protestors even set fire to the parliament building, according to the Washington Post. According to authorities, three were killed, 105 were wounded, and 800 people were arrested.
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Algeria is «facing the twin challenges of a fiscal crisis and a serious terrorism threat.»
A photograph of Algerian president Abdelaziz Bouteflika is seen as republican guards attend the constitutional reforms vote session in Algiers, Algeria February 7, 2016.Ramzi Boudina/Reuters
Risk for next year: 8
Oil production last month: 1.11 mb/d
Oil production 2015 average: 1.10 mb/d
«Algeria is facing the twin challenges of a fiscal crisis and a serious terrorism threat at a time when the aged head of state is largely incapacitated due to health problems,» wrote Croft.
Reuters reports that the president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who is 79, has been rarely seen in public since suffering a stroke in 2013. This has raised questions about whether he will finish out his term to 2019.
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Iraq argues that any production cut would affect its ability to fight ISIS.
A member of the Iraqi security forces looks at fire from oil wells set ablaze by Islamic State militants before they fled the oil-producing region of Qayyara, Iraq, November 4, 2016.Alaa Al-Marjani/Reuters
Risk for next year: 9
Oil production last month: 4.59 mb/d
Oil production 2015 average: 4.03 mb/d
«Regarding coordinated OPEC action, Iraqi officials insist that any cap would hurt efforts to fight ISIS,» wrote Croft. «In our view, though, a far greater threat to Iraq’s financial health is lower oil prices.»
«The country has a limited ability to offset the negative economic effects of a ‘no deal’ price slide given already high output levels and the ongoing security threat.»
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Libya still has a lot of political and security obstacles to a sustainable return of production.
A member of Libyan forces loyal to eastern commander Khalifa Haftar holds a weapon as he sits on a car in front of the gate at Zueitina oil terminal in Zueitina, west of Benghazi, Libya September 14, 2016. Picture taken September 14, 2016Esam Omran Al-Fetori/Reuters
Risk for next year: 9
Oil production last month: 0.52 mb/d
Oil production 2015 average: 0.39 mb/d
Libya has fractured into turmoil since Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown in 2011. Fast forward to today, the RBC Capital Markets team argues that there remain obstacles to a sustainable return of production.
«In our view, battle lines between the west and the east seem to be hardening and oil could easily become a casualty of the deteriorating security environment,» they wrote.
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Nigeria continues to see major pipeline attacks as fundamental drivers of armed militancy remain in place.
Militants in the Niger Delta area of Nigeria, February 24, 2006.AP/George Osodi
Risk for next year: 10
Oil production last month: 1.67 mb/d
Oil production 2015 average: 1.94 mb/d
The fundamental drivers of instability in Nigeria’s oil region — namely, poverty, corruption, and the proliferation of weapons — remain in place. And the country has seen a number of pipeline attacks over the last few weeks.
«Leading Nigeria experts contend that the government has made little progress toward a settlement with the multitude of armed actors despite several high-profile meetings in Abuja,» wrote Croft. «Nigeria, like Libya, is one of the wild card red herrings where we think many market participants have a bullish view on production, which to us seems unwarranted.»
Source: RBC Capital Markets
Venezuela is on the brink of political and economic collapse.
An opposition supporter holds a prescription, as people protest against shortage of medicines and demand a referendum to remove President Nicolas Maduro, during a demonstration in Caracas, Venezuela November17, 2016.Marco Bello/Reuters
Risk for next year: 10
Oil production last month: 2.18 mb/d
Oil production 2015 average: 2.36 mb/d
Venezuela is currently on the precipice of political and economic disaster, plagued by economic mismanagement, a chronic balance of payments problem, soaring inflation, food and essential goods shortages, and looting and violence. Most recently, its state oil company, PDVSA, activated a 30-day grace period for $404 million in interest payments on its 2021, 2024 and 2035 bonds.
«Seasoned country experts contend that production could soon dip below 2 mb/d. While many market participants think of Venezuela as likely to cheat, it simply lacks the barrels to do so in our view,» wrote Croft.
«…it is likely that no sovereign producer is facing as frightening a future in a low oil price environment.»
Source: RBC Capital Markets
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