Nigeria eyes oil output rising to 2.8 mil b/d by 2019 in policy outlook

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Nigeria aims to increase its crude oil output to 2.8 million b/d by 2019 and to 3 million b/d by 2020 from the current average of 2 million b/d, according to a short term policy document produced by the country’s oil ministry that S&P Global Platts obtained Sunday.

The target is anchored on reform in the Nigerian oil sector, the quick resolution of unrest in the Niger Delta and an inflow of foreign investment in the range of $100 billion, the ministry said in the document.

Gas output was targeted to surge to 10 Bcf/day by 2019 from the current 2.5 Bcf/d.

Nigeria’s oil production has stagnated for years due to a lack of investment and civil unrest in its main producing region, Niger Delta, where rebels have targeted oil facilities.

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The oil ministry in the document said the government intends to completely overhaul the oil sector, from reviewing policies to introducing robust fiscal instruments and regulations that will attract «huge investment opportunities in infrastructure development.»

«This is expected to encourage an influx of potential investors into a portfolio of high-value projects of $100 billion with healthy and diversified returns,» the ministry said in the document.

The document noted resolution was in sight for the funding challenges facing Nigeria’s oil joint venture partnerships with foreign companies.

The country’s oil minister Emmanuel Kachikwu said last week that Nigeria had reached agreement with its foreign partners on a model to settle cash calls amounting to more than $7 billion and boost production.

Industry sources last week that under the payment deal said to have been sealed five months ago, Nigeria agreed that each company would have its debts paid from the additional crude oil produced above current levels from 2017.

Nigeria, through state oil firm NNPC, operates joint venture partnerships with Exxonmobil, Italy’s Eni, Chevron and France’s Total that account for about 90% of the country’s current crude output of around 2 million b/d.

Meanwhile, the self-styled Niger Delta Avengers, the group responsible for most of the attacks on oil facilities that have cut Nigeria’s output to an almost 30-year low, said Sunday it has resumed attacks on oil facilities after the government failed to withdraw troops from the Niger Delta since peace talks began two weeks ago.

«We see this as a deliberate move by the military establishment to undermine any effort of dialogue and negotiations,» the group said.

Militants have twice in two weeks bombed the Trans-Forcados pipeline, which transports the popular export grade Forcados, undermining hopes of Nigeria’s return to normal output of around 2.2 million b/d by year end.

–Staff, newsdesk@spglobal.com
–Edited by Wendy Wells, wendy.wells@spglobal.com

Visit the Platts West African crude oil price assessment page for related information

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