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About 1.14 million mt of distillates have left the US Gulf Coast for arrival in Europe and North Africa in November, according to an estimate based on Platts trade flow software cFlow.
S&P Global Platts calculates cargo volumes based on the size of each ship and standard diesel export sizes from the US to Europe.
In October, a total of 1.16 million mt had been tracked loading from the USGC for discharge into European and North African ports.
This month, the 1.14 million mt are split into 28 clips, 19 of which are currently heading towards Northwest Europe including 10 towards the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub.
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Of the remaining nine vessels, four — potentially carrying high sulfur gasoil — are expected to discharge into Algeria, Egypt and Libya. In October, no USGC cargoes were seen going into North Africa, and in September, only two were spotted discharging into Libya’s Zawiyah and Tunisia’s La Skhirra ports, according to cFlow.
While a trickle of cargoes continues to make its way to Europe, the US-Europe arbitrage for middle distillates has been shut for weeks and remains unworkable this week, according to traders.
«We’re not seeing any US [product], but it was the same last month, so there’s no real change on that front,» a source said.
Medium Range tanker rates on the USGC to UK Continent trip, basis 38,000 mt, fell to be assessed at Worldscale 80 ($14.16/mt) Monday, according to S&P Global Platts data, after peaking at w135 ($23.90/mt) November 1, the highest rate recorded on that route this year.
With limited resupplies from the US and reduced flows from the East of Suez of late, the European diesel market was heard to be balanced to tight. But market participants pointed at higher Baltic exports this month and said the market may soften before the year-end, when stock holders typically try to minimize their inventories and as Eastern refineries come out of maintenance and resume exports.
«I think the market is quite balanced. Destocking may happen and cargoes traded at a fair price,» a trader said.
Another source said: «Obviously we’re seeing more volume from Primorsk but I think on top of that we’re seeing more material exported from other ports — Klaipeda, Ventspils from what I hear — so I think the supply increase is significant from Baltic [ports].»
–Maude Desmarescaux, maude.desmarescaux@spglobal.com
–Ornela Figurinaite, ornela.figurinaite@spglobal.com
–Edited by Jonathan Loades-Carter, jonathan.carter@spglobal.com
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